Thrs. 30th April 2026
|
Insights ICE cotton futures eased as a stronger US dollar reduced export competitiveness, while profit-taking followed recent multi-month highs after a sustained rally. Planting progress remained steady, adding mild pressure to prices in the near term. However, dry weather in Texas, geopolitical tensions, and strength in crude oil and grains provided underlying support, limiting downside risks. |
ICE cotton futures eased on yesterday due to stronger US dollar and profit booking after recent gains. Stronger US dollar reduced competitiveness, adding downside pressure on the prices. Meanwhile traders were closely monitoring weather and geopolitical developments.
The most traded contract July 2026 settled at 79.20 cents per pound, down 0.47 cent. Before downward trend, the contract had touched its highest level since May 2024 in the previous season.
US Dollar Index remained near a two-week high, as expectations grew that US interest rates will stay unchanged, making US cotton relatively more expensive for global buyers.
The market faced profit-booking pressure after a recent rally, with prices reaching multi-month highs, leading to technical correction. Market analysts said that after the recent rise, the market has entered a technically overbought and exhaustion phase.
They said that the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could provide support, but upside may remain limited due to demand-side concerns.
Reports indicated that on April 29, the US continued diplomatic efforts to push for a Gaza ceasefire, aiming to secure a phased agreement including hostage releases. However, Israel rejected Hamas’ ceasefire proposal, preferring continued military pressure, keeping regional tensions elevated. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence crude oil and broader commodity markets, indirectly impacting cotton sentiment.
Analysts projected that cotton prices could move towards 85–90 cents per pound in the longer term, depending on weather, demand, and macro factors.
USDA crop progress report showed US cotton planting at 16 per cent, up from 11 per cent last week, compared to 14 per cent last year, and above the 5-year average of 13 per cent. This indicates steady planting progress, which is slightly bearish for prices Rainfall improved soil moisture in the Delta region, supporting crop conditions. However, West Texas remains dry, continuing to pose a risk to yield and supporting prices.
In grain markets, CBOT wheat surged to a two-year high, while corn also hit fresh highs, driven by weather risks and geopolitical factors. Strength in grains and crude oil continues to provide indirect support to cotton prices.
ICE exchange data showed certified stocks unchanged at 165,681 bales as on April 28, indicating stable deliverable supply.
Market turned slightly negative, weighed by strong dollar and profit-taking, while weather risks in Texas, geopolitical tensions, and strength in crude & grains continue to provide underlying support, keeping downside limited.
This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE cotton for July 2026 was traded at 79.66 cents per pound (up 0.46 cent), cash cotton at 76.67 cents (down 0.47 cent), the May 2026 contract at 76.86 cents (down 0.48 cent), the October 2026 contract at 80.71 cents (down 0.60 cent), the December 2026 at 80.81 cents (up 0.35 cent) and the March 2027 contract at 81.71 cents (up 0.34 cent)). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded so far today.