Wed July 2,
Insights
Brazil's 2024–25 cotton harvest is picking up, with production forecast to reach 3.913 million tons—up 5.7 per cent from the previous season.
Sellers are clearing older stocks amid falling domestic and international prices, pushing the CEPEA/ESALQ Index down 6.16 per cent in June.
Exports also slumped by nearly 48 per cent month-on-month.
Brazil's 2024-25 cotton harvest is gaining momentum, with expectations that it could reach record levels. As harvesting activity intensifies, sellers are rushing to offload remaining stocks from the 2023-24 crop, while buyers are negotiating lower prices for new batches. This dynamic, coupled with declining international cotton prices, has led to a drop in domestic quotations, as per the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
On June 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (payment in 8 days) stood at BRL 4.1456 (~$0.76) per pound, reflecting a 6.16 per cent decline from May 30. According to National Supply Company (CONAB), only 4 per cent of the planted area had been harvested as of June 21.
Brazil exported 100 thousand tons of cotton in June (14 working days), down 48 per cent from May 2025 and 37.7 per cent below June 2024 levels. The daily export average reached 7.14 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 per cent year-on-year, CEPEA said in its latest fortnightly report on the Brazilian cotton market.
CONAB’s latest forecast, published on June 12, expects Brazil's 2024-25 cotton production to reach 3.913 million tons, a 0.2 per cent increase over May’s estimate and 5.7 per cent above the 2023-24 output. The total sown area is forecast at 2.082 million hectares—slightly down from last month but up 7.1 per cent year-on-year. However, yield is expected to fall by 1.2 per cent versus the previous season, averaging 1,880 kilos per hectare.
The USDA's June report projects 2025/26 global cotton production at 25.472 million tons, down 0.7 per cent from May and 2.4 per cent lower than 2024-25. Brazil's production is forecast to rise 7.4 per cent year-on-year, nearing 4 million tons.
Global consumption is estimated at 25.638 million tons, 1 per cent higher than the previous season, yet 0.3 per cent below the May forecast. Consequently, 2025-26 consumption may slightly outpace supply by 0.65 per cent, hinting at a tighter global balance.