Thurs July 17,
Insights
Brazilian cotton prices fell 0.32 per cent between June 30 and July 15 despite firm global demand, as the 2024–25 harvest progresses towards a potential record 3.938 million tons.
The price gap with global markets narrowed.
As of July 12, 13.6 per cent of the area was harvested.
USDA forecasts 2025–26 global production at 25.783 million tons, closely matching consumption.
While global cotton prices strengthened in mid-July due to firm demand for US-origin fibre, Brazil saw domestic quotations retreat, driven by the progress of what may be a record-breaking harvest. Despite prices in Brazil remaining above international levels, the gap has narrowed, diminishing the domestic market’s pricing advantage, as per the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA).
According to the CEPEA/ESALQ Index, Brazilian cotton prices dipped by 0.32 per cent between June 30 and July 15, settling at BRL 4.1324 (~$0.74) per pound on July 15, CEPEA said in its latest fortnightly report on the Brazilian cotton market.
The decline coincides with updated projections from National Supply Company (CONAB) (July 10), which now pegs Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton output at 3.938 million tons—an increase of 0.65 per cent from June’s estimate and 6.4 per cent above the 2023-24 season. The planted area is projected at 2.084 million hectares, up 0.11 per cent month-on-month and 7.2 per cent year-on-year. Productivity is forecast at 1,890 kg/ha, 0.7 per cent lower than last season, but 0.53 per cent higher than June’s forecast.
As of July 12, harvest progress reached 13.6 per cent of the planted area, below the five-year average of 19.2 per cent for the same period.
Globally, USDA’s July 11 report forecasts 2025-26 world cotton production at 25.783 million tons—up 1.2 per cent from the previous month but 1.2 per cent lower than 2024-25 levels. Global consumption is expected to reach 25.718 million tons, reflecting increases of 1.2 per cent month-on-month and 0.3 per cent year-on-year. This would leave global consumption just 0.3 per cent short of overall supply in the 2025-26 season, signalling a near-balanced market.