(USA) US cotton producers intend to plant 3.64 million ha of cotton this spring, down 26.8% from 2012, according to the National Cotton Council's (NCC) 30th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. Upland cotton intentions are 3.56 million ha, down 27.0% from 2012, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 82,151 ha represent a 15.0% decline.
Assuming slightly above-average abandonment in the Southwest region due to the dry conditions and all other states set at historical averages, total upland and ELS harvested area would be 3.09 million ha, which is 15.2 percent below planted area.
Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested hectares generates a cotton crop of 12.86 million bales, compared with 2012's total production of 17.01 million bales.
NCC Vice President Gary Adams says: "Planted acreage is just one variable determining final production. Weather is often a more significant determinant, particularly weather developments in the southwestern US. With this in mind, we could see the US crop ranging from a low of 9.5 million bales to a high of 17.0 million bales.
" The NCC survey was mailed in mid-December 2012 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, and asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2012 and the area planned for the coming season.
Survey responses were collected through mid-January. Adams says: "Projections by market watchers have been calling for reduced acreage in 2013, and the NCC survey agrees with those expectations. Cotton farmers are responding to market signals. Relative prices of cotton and competing crops have been the primary factor influencing US acreage."
(Source: Cotton Australia)