Friday April 30, 2021
The past month has seen a net increase of 145,000 tonnes to Cotlook’s forecast of raw cotton production during the 2020/21 season. Rises were noted for China, Brazil and Australia.
|
Cotton Outlook World Raw Cotton Supply & Demand Forecasts Figures in tonnes for August/July season |
||||||
|
|
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
||||
|
|
March |
April |
Change |
March |
April |
Change |
|
Major Producers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
India |
6,120,000 |
6,120,000 |
|
6,290,000 |
6,290,000 |
|
|
China |
6,300,000 |
6,330,000 |
+30,000 |
5,900,000 |
5,900,000 |
|
|
United States |
3,201,000 |
3,201,000 |
|
3,476,000 |
3,476,000 |
|
|
Brazil |
2,400,000 |
2,500,000 |
+100,000 |
2,800,000 |
2,800,000 |
|
|
African Franc Zone |
1,028,000 |
1,018,000 |
-10,000 |
1,293,000 |
1,293,000 |
|
|
Pakistan |
950,000 |
950,000 |
|
1,200,000 |
1,200,000 |
|
|
Uzbekistan |
765,000 |
765,000 |
|
750,000 |
750,000 |
|
|
Turkey |
650,000 |
650,000 |
|
725,000 |
725,000 |
|
|
Australia |
500,000 |
525,000 |
+25,000 |
650,000 |
800,000 |
+150,000 |
|
Others |
2,126,000 |
2,126,000 |
|
2,162,000 |
2,162,000 |
|
|
World Production |
24,040,000 |
24,185,000 |
+145,000 |
25,246,000 |
25,396,000 |
+150,000 |
|
Major Consumers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Indian subcontinent |
9,176,000 |
9,176,000 |
|
9,551,000 |
9,551,000 |
|
|
China |
8,250,000 |
8,250,000 |
|
8,400,000 |
8,400,000 |
|
|
Vietnam |
1,450,000 |
1,450,000 |
|
1,550,000 |
1,550,000 |
|
|
Turkey |
1,600,000 |
1,600,000 |
|
1,700,000 |
1,700,000 |
|
|
Brazil |
650,000 |
650,000 |
|
700,000 |
700,000 |
|
|
Indonesia |
550,000 |
515,000 |
-35,000 |
575,000 |
550,000 |
-25,000 |
|
United States |
500,000 |
500,000 |
|
540,000 |
540,000 |
|
|
Others |
2,678,000 |
2,668,000 |
-10,000 |
2,707,000 |
2,702,000 |
-5,000 |
|
World Consumption |
24,854,000 |
24,809,000 |
-45,000 |
25,723,000 |
25,693,000 |
-30,000 |
|
Net Change in Stock |
-814,000 |
-624,000 |
|
-477,000 |
-297,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conversely, reduced consumption figures for Indonesia and some smaller markets have resulted in a lower estimate of global consumption. As a result of the above changes, world cotton stocks by the end of the current season are expected to decline by 624,000 tonnes, compared with 814,000 a month ago.
For 2021/22, a considerable increase in the forecast for Australian production was prompted by heavy rains that have replenished reservoirs, while global consumption has been reduced modestly, mainly owing to an adjustment for Indonesia. World stocks are therefore expected to fall by 297,000 tonnes. (Source: cotlook.com)