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CAI RELEASES ITS OCTOBER ESTIMATE OF THE COTTON CROP FOR 2018-19 CROP YEAR AT 343.25 LAKH BALES |
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its October estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2018-19 beginning from 1st October 2018.
The CAI has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 crop year at 343.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is lower by 4.75 lakh bales than 348 lakh bales announced at the Second Domestic Conference for 2018 held on 6th October 2018 in Aurangabad. Statements containing the state-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the Balance Sheet for the crop year 2018-19 with the corresponding data for the previous year are enclosed. The CAI has revised downwards the crop estimate for Gujarat by 2 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 1 lakh bales, Karnataka by 1 lakh bales and Orissa by 75 thousand bales than compared to its previous estimate due to unfavourable weather conditions.
The CAI has projected total cotton supply during October 2018 at 50.13 lakh bales which consists the arrival of 26.13 lakh bales during the month of October 2018, imports during October 2018 which the Committee has estimated at 1.00 lakh bales and the opening stock at the beginning of the season as on 1st October 2018 which the Committee has estimated at 23.00 lakh bales.
Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption for during October 2018 at 27 lakh bales while the export shipment of cotton during October 2018 has been estimated at 2.50 lakh bales.
The stock at the end of October 2018 is estimated at 20.63 lakh bales including 16.53 lakh bales with textile mills while the remaining 4.10 lakh bales are estimated to be held by CCI and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).
The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2018-19 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. upto 30th September 2019 at 390.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which includes opening stock of 23 lakh bales at the beginning of the season and imports of 24 lakh bales which are estimated to be higher by 9 lakh bales compared to the imports figure of 15 lakh bales estimated for the 2017-18 crop year. The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 51 lakh bales which are lower by 18 lakh bales compared to 69 lakh bales during the last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2018-19 season is estimated by the CAI at 15.25 lakh bales.
During October, record breaking cotton arrivals are witnessed due to the fact that there were no rains during the last 60 to 70 days in the entire cotton belt of India. Due to the dry and hot weather, kapas bolls opened in early stages this year. Moreover, in the northern region, kapas was sold at 4500 per quintal same time last year whereas this year farmers are getting substantially higher price of about 5300 per quintal. Due to this, arrivals are considerably higher in October this year.
| ( Atul S. Ganatra ) | ||
| Date : 05/11/2018 | President | |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||||||||
| INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2017-18 AND 2018-19 | ||||||||||
| Estimated as on 31st October 2018 | ||||||||||
| State | Arrivals As on 31st October 2018 | |||||||||
| 2018-19 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | ||||||||
| Total | Total | Total | ||||||||
| Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Punjab | 7.50 | 2.50 | 10.00 | 170.00 | 6.50 | 2.50 | 9.00 | 153.00 | 1.92 | 32.64 |
| Haryana | 21.00 | 3.00 | 24.00 | 408.00 | 20.60 | 3.00 | 23.60 | 401.20 | 4.50 | 76.50 |
| Upper Rajasthan | 10.95 | 0.55 | 11.50 | 195.50 | 10.60 | 0.55 | 11.15 | 189.55 | 3.36 | 57.12 |
| Lower Rajasthan | 11.95 | 0.55 | 12.50 | 212.50 | 11.70 | 0.55 | 12.25 | 208.25 | 2.65 | 45.05 |
| Total North Zone | 51.40 | 6.60 | 58.00 | 986.00 | 49.40 | 6.60 | 56.00 | 952.00 | 12.43 | 211.31 |
| Gujarat | 84.80 | 3.20 | 88.00 | 1496.00 | 101.80 | 3.20 | 105.00 | 1785.00 | 4.25 | 72.25 |
| Maharashtra | 74.25 | 5.75 | 80.00 | 1360.00 | 77.25 | 5.75 | 83.00 | 1411.00 | 2.00 | 34.00 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 23.30 | 0.70 | 24.00 | 408.00 | 20.80 | 0.70 | 21.50 | 365.50 | 3.00 | 51.00 |
| Total Central Zone | 182.35 | 9.65 | 192.00 | 3264.00 | 199.85 | 9.65 | 209.50 | 3561.50 | 9.25 | 157.25 |
| Telangana | 50.40 | 0.60 | 51.00 | 867.00 | 50.90 | 0.60 | 51.50 | 875.50 | 3.25 | 55.25 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 10.10 | 5.90 | 16.00 | 272.00 | 12.60 | 5.90 | 18.50 | 314.50 | 0.60 | 10.20 |
| Karnataka | 15.90 | 1.10 | 17.00 | 289.00 | 17.65 | 1.10 | 18.75 | 318.75 | 0.60 | 10.20 |
| Tamil Nadu | 2.80 | 2.20 | 5.00 | 85.00 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 5.75 | 97.75 | - | - |
| Total South Zone | 79.20 | 9.80 | 89.00 | 1513.00 | 84.70 | 9.80 | 94.50 | 1606.50 | 4.45 | 75.65 |
| Orissa | 3.20 | 0.05 | 3.25 | 55.25 | 3.95 | 0.05 | 4.00 | 68.00 | - | - |
| Others | 1.00 | - | 1.00 | 17.00 | 1.00 | - | 1.00 | 17.00 | - | - |
| Grand Total | 317.15 | 26.10 | 343.25 | 5835.25 | 338.90 | 26.10 | 365.00 | 6205.00 | 26.13 | 444.21 |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||
| INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 2017-18 AND 2018-19 | ||||
| Estimated as on 31st October 2018 | ||||
| Details | 2018-19 | 2017-18 | ||
| (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Supply | ||||
| Opening Stock | 23.00 | 391.00 | 36.00 | 612.00 |
| Crop | 343.25 | 5835.25 | 365.00 | 6205.00 |
| Imports | 24.00 | 408.00 | 15.00 | 255.00 |
| Total Supply | 390.25 | 6634.25 | 416.00 | 7072.00 |
| Demand | ||||
| Mill Consumption | 280.00 | 4760.00 | 280.00 | 4760.00 |
| Consumption by SSI Units | 29.00 | 493.00 | 29.00 | 493.00 |
| Non- Mill Consumption | 15.00 | 255.00 | 15.00 | 255.00 |
| Total Domestic Demand | 324.00 | 5508.00 | 324.00 | 5508.00 |
| Available Surplus | 66.25 | 1126.25 | 92.00 | 1564.00 |
| Exports | 51.00 | 867.00 | 69.00 | 1173.00 |
| Closing Stock | 15.25 | 259.25 | 23.00 | 391.00 |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||
| Balance Sheet of 1 month i.e. from 1.10.2018 to 31.10.2018 | ||
| for the season 2018-19 | ||
| Details | (in lakh b/s of 170 kg) | (in '000 Tons) |
| Opening Stock as on 01.10.2018 | 23.00 | 391.00 |
| Arrivals upto 31.10.2018 | 26.13 | 444.21 |
| Imports upto 31.10.2018 | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| Total Available | 50.13 | 852.21 |
| Consumption (27 Lakhs X 1 month) | 27.00 | 459.00 |
| Export Shipment upto 31.10.2018 | 2.50 | 42.50 |
| Stock with Mills | 16.53 | 281.01 |
| Stock with CCI, MNCs & Ginners | 4.10 | 69.70 |
| Total | 50.13 | 852.21 |
| AS PER COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||
| STOCK ON 31.10.2018 | ||||
| (Figures in lakh bales of 170 kg.) | ||||
| STATE | GINNERS | MNC | CCI | TOTAL |
| NORTH | 2.05 | 0.10 | NIL | 2.15 |
| GUJARAT | 0.55 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| MAHARASHTRA | 0.10 | 0.05 | NIL | 0.15 |
| ANDHRA PRADESH | NIL | NIL | NIL | NIL |
| TELANGANA | 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 0.80 |
| MADHYA PRADESH | 0.15 | NIL | NIL | 0.15 |
| ORISSA | 0.10 | NIL | NIL | 0.10 |
| KARNATAKA | NIL | NIL | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| TOTAL | 3.25 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 4.10 |