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CAI REDUCES ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2021-22 SEASON TO 335.13 LAKH BALES |
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Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its March estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021-22 beginning from 1st October 2021. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 8.00 lakh bales to 335.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 356.08 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to March 2022 is estimated by the CAI at 343.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 365.16 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 262.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 279.10 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 6 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 6.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to March 2022 at 175 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 185.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st March 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 35 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 37.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of March 2022 is estimated at 133.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 142.04 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 58.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 62.35 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021-22 i.e. upto 30th September 2022 at 425.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 451.70 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 8 lakh bales compared to 433.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 460.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated by the CAI previously. The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2021, crop for the season estimated at 335.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 356.08 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against the previous estimate of 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the Season estimated at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) that is at the same level as estimated previously as against the previous year’s import estimates of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The domestic consumption is estimated by the CAI at 340 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 361.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 45 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs.each) The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2020-21 was of 78 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 82.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 48.13 lakh bales is now estimated at 40.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The previous year’s stock was estimated by CAI at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous cotton season 2020-21.
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 8TH APRIL 2022
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its physical meeting on Friday, the 8th April 2022. 15 members across all cotton growing regions of the country participated in the deliberations. The Committee arrived at the March estimate of the cotton crop for the 2021-22 season and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has retained its consumption estimate for the current crop year 2021-22 at 340 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 361.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The previous year’s consumption estimate was 335 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 355.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31st March 2022, the consumption is estimated at 175 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 185.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2021-22 to 335.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 356.08 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made earlier. The changes made in the state-wise cotton production estimates compared to those estimated during the last month are given below:-
In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each
|
States |
Reduction (-) |
|
Gujarat |
2.00 |
|
Maharashtra |
1.50 |
|
Madhya Pradesh |
0.50 |
|
Telangana |
2.00 |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
0.50 |
|
Karnataka |
1.00 |
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Odisha |
0.50 |
|
Total |
8.00 |
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
- IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been maintained at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The imports now estimated for the 2021-22 crop year are more by 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 5.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) compared to the imports estimate of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 2020-21.
Upto 31st March 2022 about 6.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 6.38 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
- EXPORTS
The Committee has adopted the cotton exports estimate of 45 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month.
Upto 31st March 2022, about 35 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 37.19 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
- ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2021 to March 2022 are estimated at 262.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 279.10 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Upto 31st March 2022, around 80% of Indian cotton arrivals are over. According to the CAI records for the cotton seasons 2017-18 to 2019-20, around 20% of total crop arrivals are coming in the second half of the year i.e. from 1st April to 30th September. This includes current season as well as the new crop arrivals of August and September. Considering this, around 70 to 72 lakh bales + 5 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each are expected to arrive.
STOCK AS ON 31ST MARCH 2022
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st March 2022 are estimated at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 81 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 58.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 62.35 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31st March 2022.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31st March 2022 is estimated at 133.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 142.04 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2022
Closing stock as on 30th September 2022 is estimated by the Committee at 40.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
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Mumbai |
Atul S. Ganatra |
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Date: 9th April 2022 |
President |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | |||||||||||||
| INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2020-21AND 2021-22 | |||||||||||||
| Estimated as on 31st March 2022 | |||||||||||||
| State | Arrivals As on 31st March 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021-22 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | |||||||||||
| Total | Total | Total | |||||||||||
| (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) * | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Punjab | 9.64 | 8.87 | 0.20 | 9.07 | 154.19 | 11.16 | 10.35 | 0.15 | 10.50 | 178.50 | 7.26 | 6.83 | 116.11 |
| Haryana | 17.11 | 15.62 | 0.48 | 16.10 | 273.70 | 23.91 | 22.14 | 0.36 | 22.50 | 382.50 | 14.57 | 13.71 | 233.07 |
| Upper Rajasthan | 15.24 | 14.01 | 0.33 | 14.34 | 243.78 | 20.72 | 19.25 | 0.25 | 19.50 | 331.50 | 14.64 | 13.78 | 234.26 |
| Lower Rajasthan | 12.57 | 11.50 | 0.33 | 11.83 | 201.11 | 13.81 | 12.76 | 0.24 | 13.00 | 221.00 | 10.16 | 9.56 | 162.52 |
| Total North Zone | 54.55 | 50.00 | 1.34 | 51.34 | 872.78 | 69.59 | 64.50 | 1.00 | 65.50 | 1113.50 | 46.62 | 43.88 | 745.96 |
| Gujarat | 94.55 | 87.00 | 1.99 | 88.99 | 1512.83 | 97.22 | 90.01 | 1.49 | 91.50 | 1555.50 | 70.02 | 65.90 | 1120.30 |
| Maharashtra | 90.27 | 83.50 | 1.46 | 84.96 | 1444.32 | 86.06 | 79.91 | 1.09 | 81.00 | 1377.00 | 70.39 | 66.25 | 1126.25 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 21.25 | 19.50 | 0.50 | 20.00 | 340.00 | 19.66 | 18.12 | 0.38 | 18.50 | 314.50 | 17.40 | 16.38 | 278.46 |
| Total Central Zone | 206.07 | 190.00 | 3.95 | 193.95 | 3297.15 | 202.94 | 188.04 | 2.96 | 191.00 | 3247.00 | 157.81 | 148.53 | 2525.01 |
| Telangana | 42.40 | 39.00 | 0.91 | 39.91 | 678.47 | 46.75 | 43.31 | 0.69 | 44.00 | 748.00 | 33.84 | 31.85 | 541.45 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 14.13 | 13.00 | 0.30 | 13.30 | 226.10 | 17.00 | 15.77 | 0.23 | 16.00 | 272.00 | 12.22 | 11.50 | 195.50 |
| Karnataka | 22.90 | 21.00 | 0.55 | 21.55 | 366.35 | 25.50 | 23.59 | 0.41 | 24.00 | 408.00 | 18.86 | 17.75 | 301.75 |
| Tamil Nadu | 10.63 | 9.86 | 0.14 | 10.00 | 170.00 | 7.97 | 7.40 | 0.10 | 7.50 | 127.50 | 4.52 | 4.25 | 72.25 |
| Total South Zone | 90.06 | 82.86 | 1.90 | 84.76 | 1440.92 | 97.22 | 90.07 | 1.43 | 91.50 | 1555.50 | 69.43 | 65.35 | 1110.95 |
| Orissa | 2.21 | 2.00 | 0.08 | 2.08 | 35.36 | 3.19 | 2.94 | 0.06 | 3.00 | 51.00 | 2.04 | 1.92 | 32.64 |
| Others | 3.19 | 3.00 | - | 3.00 | 51.00 | 2.13 | 2.00 | - | 2.00 | 34.00 | 3.19 | 3.00 | 51.00 |
| Grand Total | 356.08 | 327.86 | 7.27 | 335.13 | 5697.21 | 375.06 | 347.55 | 5.45 | 353.00 | 6001.00 | 279.10 | 262.68 | 4465.56 |
| * Loose cotton production figures are as per the survey report of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International School of Textiles and Management for a non-covid year. | |||||||||||||
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||
| INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 2020-21 AND 2021-22 | ||||
| Estimated as on 31st March 2022 | ||||
| Details | 2021-22 | 2020-21 | ||
| (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Supply | ||||
| Opening Stock | 75.00 | 1275.00 | 125.00 | 2125.00 |
| Crop | 335.13 | 5697.21 | 353.00 | 6001.00 |
| Imports | 15.00 | 255.00 | 10.00 | 170.00 |
| Total Supply | 425.13 | 7227.21 | 488.00 | 8296.00 |
| Demand | ||||
| Mill Consumption | 300.00 | 5100.00 | 292.00 | 4964.00 |
| Consumption by SSI Units | 25.00 | 425.00 | 25.00 | 425.00 |
| Non- Mill Consumption | 15.00 | 255.00 | 18.00 | 306.00 |
| Total Domestic Demand | 340.00 | 5780.00 | 335.00 | 5695.00 |
| Available Surplus | 85.13 | 1447.21 | 153.00 | 2601.00 |
| Exports | 45.00 | 765.00 | 78.00 | 1326.00 |
| Closing Stock | 40.13 | 682.21 | 75.00 | 1275.00 |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||
| Balance Sheet of 6 months i.e. from 1.10.2021 to 31.03.2022 | ||
| for the season 2021-22 | ||
| Details | (in lakh b/s of 170 kg) | (in '000 Tons) |
| Opening Stock as on 01.10.2021 | 75.00 | 1275.00 |
| Arrivals upto 31.03.2022 | 262.68 | 4465.56 |
| Imports upto 31.03.2022 | 6.00 | 102.00 |
| Total Available | 343.68 | 5842.56 |
| Consumption | 175.00 | 2975.00 |
| Export Shipments upto 31.03.2022 | 35.00 | 595.00 |
| Stock with Mills | 75.00 | 1275.00 |
| Stock with CCI, Maha. Fedn., MCX, MNCs, Ginners, Traders & Exporters | 58.68 | 997.56 |
| Total | 343.68 | 5842.56 |