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CAI PEGS DOWN ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2021-22 SEASON TO 348.13 LAKH BALES |
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Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its December estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021-22 beginning from 1st October 2021. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 369.89 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to December 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 218.52 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 232.18 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 140.52 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 149.30 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 3 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 3.19 lakh running bales of 160 kg. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs .each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to December 2021 at 86.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 91.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st December 2021 are estimated by the CAI at 18.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 19.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of December 2021 is estimated at 113.77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 120.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 65 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 48.77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51.82 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021-22 i.e. upto 30th September 2022 at 438.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 465.51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2021, crop for the season estimated at 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 369.89 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports now estimated by the CAI at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2020-21.
The domestic consumption for the crop year 2021-22 has been increased by the CAI by 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each to 345 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 366.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous consumption estimate of 335 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 355.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs, each). The exports for the season have now retained at 48 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated earlier. The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2020-21 was of 78 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 82.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2021-22 on 30th September 2022, is now estimated by the CAI at 45.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.95 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) in the previous season.
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 17TH JANUARY 2022
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held a virtual meeting on 17th January 2022, which was attended by in all 29 members representing all cotton producing states and stakeholders. The Committee arrived at the December estimate of the cotton crop for the 2021-22 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-
- CONSUMPTION
The CAI has increased its consumption estimate for the current crop year by 10 lakh bales to 345 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 366.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as compared to its previous consumption estimate of 335 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 355.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made in the last month.
Upto 31st December 2021, the consumption is estimated at 86.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 91.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2021-22 to 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 369.89 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The changes made in the state-wise cotton production estimates for the season compared to those estimated during the last month are given below:-
In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each
|
States |
Increase (+) / Reduction (-) |
|
Punjab |
-1.00 |
|
Haryana |
-0.50 |
|
Upper Rajasthan |
-0.25 |
|
Lower Rajasthan |
-0.25 |
|
Gujarat |
-5.00 |
|
Telangana |
-2.00 |
|
Karnataka |
-2.00 |
|
Odisha |
-1.00 |
|
Total reduction |
-12.00 |
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
- IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been increased by 5 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from the previous month’s import estimate of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which was equivalent to that of the previous crop year 2020-21.
Upto 31st December 2021, about 3.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
- EXPORTS
The estimate of cotton exports for the 2021-22 crop year has been retained at the same level as estimated previously i.e. at 48.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against the previous year’s export estimate of 78 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 82.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31st December 2021, about 18.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 19.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
- ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2021 to December 2021 are estimated at 140.52 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 149.30 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). These arrivals are lower compared to the cotton arrivals of the corresponding months of the previous crop year 2020-21. However if we compare the current year’s cotton arrivals with the average cotton arrivals of October to December during the last five years, the current year’s cotton arrivals are higher by 23.11 lakh bales of 170 kgs each compared to the average cotton arrivals of the corresponding months of the last five years (excepting the cotton year 2020-21, which was an exceptional year).
- STOCK AS ON 31st DECEMBER 2021
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st December 2021 are estimated at 65.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 69.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 68 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 48.77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51.82 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31st December 2021.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31st December 2021 is estimated at 113.77 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 120.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
- CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2022
Closing stock as on 30th September 2022 is estimated by the Committee at 45.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.95 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
|
Mumbai |
Atul S. Ganatra |
|
Date: 18th January 2022 |
President |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | |||||||||||||
| INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2020-21AND 2021-22 | |||||||||||||
| Estimated as on 31st December 2021 | |||||||||||||
| State | Arrivals As on 31st December 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2021-22 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | |||||||||||
| Total | Total | Total | |||||||||||
| (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) * | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | Loose (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | (in running b/s of 160 kgs. each) | (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Punjab | 9.64 | 8.87 | 0.20 | 9.07 | 154.19 | 11.16 | 10.35 | 0.15 | 10.50 | 178.50 | 4.18 | 3.93 | 66.81 |
| Haryana | 17.11 | 15.62 | 0.48 | 16.10 | 273.70 | 23.91 | 22.14 | 0.36 | 22.50 | 382.50 | 7.13 | 6.71 | 114.07 |
| Upper Rajasthan | 15.24 | 14.01 | 0.33 | 14.34 | 243.78 | 20.72 | 19.25 | 0.25 | 19.50 | 331.50 | 10.29 | 9.68 | 164.56 |
| Lower Rajasthan | 12.57 | 11.50 | 0.33 | 11.83 | 201.11 | 13.81 | 12.76 | 0.24 | 13.00 | 221.00 | 7.24 | 6.81 | 115.77 |
| Total North Zone | 54.55 | 50.00 | 1.34 | 51.34 | 872.78 | 69.59 | 64.50 | 1.00 | 65.50 | 1113.50 | 28.83 | 27.13 | 461.21 |
| Gujarat | 97.74 | 90.00 | 1.99 | 91.99 | 1563.83 | 97.22 | 90.01 | 1.49 | 91.50 | 1555.50 | 35.85 | 33.74 | 573.58 |
| Maharashtra | 91.86 | 85.00 | 1.46 | 86.46 | 1469.82 | 86.06 | 79.91 | 1.09 | 81.00 | 1377.00 | 36.13 | 34.00 | 578.00 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 21.78 | 20.00 | 0.50 | 20.50 | 348.50 | 19.66 | 18.12 | 0.38 | 18.50 | 314.50 | 10.15 | 9.55 | 162.35 |
| Total Central Zone | 211.38 | 195.00 | 3.95 | 198.95 | 3382.15 | 202.94 | 188.04 | 2.96 | 191.00 | 3247.00 | 82.12 | 77.29 | 1313.93 |
| Telangana | 46.65 | 43.00 | 0.91 | 43.91 | 746.47 | 46.75 | 43.31 | 0.69 | 44.00 | 748.00 | 16.28 | 15.32 | 260.44 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 15.19 | 14.00 | 0.30 | 14.30 | 243.10 | 17.00 | 15.77 | 0.23 | 16.00 | 272.00 | 7.44 | 7.00 | 119.00 |
| Karnataka | 25.02 | 23.00 | 0.55 | 23.55 | 400.35 | 25.50 | 23.59 | 0.41 | 24.00 | 408.00 | 10.89 | 10.25 | 174.25 |
| Tamil Nadu | 10.63 | 9.86 | 0.14 | 10.00 | 170.00 | 7.97 | 7.40 | 0.10 | 7.50 | 127.50 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 11.90 |
| Total South Zone | 97.50 | 89.86 | 1.90 | 91.76 | 1559.92 | 97.22 | 90.07 | 1.43 | 91.50 | 1555.50 | 35.35 | 33.27 | 565.59 |
| Orissa | 3.27 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 3.08 | 52.36 | 3.19 | 2.94 | 0.06 | 3.00 | 51.00 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 22.10 |
| Others | 3.19 | 3.00 | - | 3.00 | 51.00 | 2.13 | 2.00 | - | 2.00 | 34.00 | 1.63 | 1.53 | 26.01 |
| Grand Total | 369.89 | 340.86 | 7.27 | 348.13 | 5918.21 | 375.06 | 347.55 | 5.45 | 353.00 | 6001.00 | 149.30 | 140.52 | 2388.84 |
| * Loose cotton production figures are as per the survey report of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International School of Textiles and Management for a non-covid year. | |||||||||||||
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||
| INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 2020-21 AND 2021-22 | ||||
| Estimated as on 31st December 2021 | ||||
| Details | 2021-22 | 2020-21 | ||
| (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Supply | ||||
| Opening Stock | 75.00 | 1275.00 | 125.00 | 2125.00 |
| Crop | 348.13 | 5918.21 | 353.00 | 6001.00 |
| Imports | 15.00 | 255.00 | 10.00 | 170.00 |
| Total Supply | 438.13 | 7448.21 | 488.00 | 8296.00 |
| Demand | ||||
| Mill Consumption | 305.00 | 5185.00 | 292.00 | 4964.00 |
| Consumption by SSI Units | 25.00 | 425.00 | 25.00 | 425.00 |
| Non- Mill Consumption | 15.00 | 255.00 | 18.00 | 306.00 |
| Total Domestic Demand | 345.00 | 5865.00 | 335.00 | 5695.00 |
| Available Surplus | 93.13 | 1583.21 | 153.00 | 2601.00 |
| Exports | 48.00 | 816.00 | 78.00 | 1326.00 |
| Closing Stock | 45.13 | 767.21 | 75.00 | 1275.00 |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||
| Balance Sheet of 3 months i.e. from 1.10.2021 to 31.12.2021 | ||
| for the season 2021-22 | ||
| Details | (in lakh b/s of 170 kg) | (in '000 Tons) |
| Opening Stock as on 01.10.2021 | 75.00 | 1275.00 |
| Arrivals upto 31.12.2021 | 140.52 | 2388.84 |
| Imports upto 31.12.2021 | 3.00 | 51.00 |
| Total Available | 218.52 | 3714.84 |
| Consumption | 86.25 | 1466.25 |
| Export Shipments upto 31.12.2021 | 18.50 | 314.50 |
| Stock with Mills | 65.00 | 1105.00 |
| Stock with CCI, Maha. Fedn., MCX, MNCs, Ginners, Traders & Exporters | 48.77 | 829.09 |
| Total | 218.52 | 3714.84 |