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CAI MAINTAINS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2019-20 SEASON AT 354.50 LAKH BALES |
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its March estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1st October 2019. The CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 to March 2020 is 327.53 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 283.03 lakh bales upto 31st March 2020, imports of 12.50 lakh bales upto 31st March 2020 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to March 2020 at 154.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 31st March 2020 is 31.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of March 2020 is estimated by the CAI at 142.53 lakh bales including 34.00 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 108.53 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).
There is no change in the yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI and the Crop Committee of the Association has estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 411.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month). Total cotton supply consists of the Opening Stock of 32.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2019, crop for the season estimated at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous years estimate of 32.00 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board in their meeting held on 28th November 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous year. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 38.50 lakh bales.
The Committee has decided to meet in the first week of May 2020 to take stock of the situation arising on account of the unprecedented crisis of COVID-19 Pandemic and consider changes if any to be made in the Cotton Balance Sheet for the Season.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 4TH APRIL 2020
Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) has arrived at its March estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations of Crop Committee of Cotton association of India: -
1) The cotton crop estimate for the season 2019-20 is retained by the CAI at 354.50 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month and there are no changes in the state-wise crop figures estimated now compared to the previous month except for Haryana whose cotton crop estimate for the Season has been reduced by 1 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each and Lower Rajasthan whose cotton crop estimate for the Season has been increased by 1 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.
2) There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and it is retained at 42 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.
3) There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and it is also retained at the same level i.e. 25 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously. The import figure is lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.
4) The yearly consumption is estimated by the CAI at 331 lakh bales i,e. same as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at its meeting held on 28th November 2019.
5) The Committee has, however, decided to meet during the first week of May 2020 to take stock of the situation arising on account of the unprecedented crisis of COVID-19 Pandemic and to assess changes if any to be made in the cotton balance sheet for the season.
6) Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 to March 2020 are estimated at 283.03 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which are equivalent to 300.72 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
7) Shipment of imports from 1st October 2019 to 31 March 2020 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 12.50 lakh bales while balance 12.50 lakh bales are estimated to arrive Indian Ports during the period from 1st April 2020 to 30th September 2020 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 25 lakh bales).
8) Cotton export shipments from 1st October 2019 to 31st March 2020 which have already been shipped are estimated at 31.00 lakh bales while balance 11.00 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from 1st April 2020 to 30th September 2020 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 42 lakh bales).
9) Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 6 months i.e. from 1st October 2019 to 31st March 2020 is estimated at 154.00 lakh bales which are equivalent to 163.62 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
10) Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 31st March 2020 is estimated at 34.00 lakh bales (equivalent to 36.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Mills have on an average 40 days cotton stock in their godowns.
11) CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 108.53 lakh bales as on 31st March 2020 which is equal to about 115.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
12) Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 31st March 2020 is estimated at 142.53 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 151.44 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
13) Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 38.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equivalent to 40.90 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each.
14) Due to lockdown, meeting of the CAI Crop Committee has taken place on WhatsApp and more than 20 Members participated.
15) Due to lockdown, cotton consumption by Indian Mills, cotton exports from India and cotton Imports into India as well as carry forward stock will get changed in the cotton balance sheet for 2019-20. The CAI Crop Committee will review the same at its next meeting.
| Mumbai | (Atul S. Ganatra) |
| 6th April 2020 | President |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||||||||||
| INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20 | ||||||||||
| Estimated as on 31st March 2020 |
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| Details | 2019-20 | 2018-19 | ||
| (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | (in lakh b/s) | (in’000 Tons) | |
| Supply | ||||
| Opening Stock | 32.00 | 544.00 | 33.00 | 561.00 |
| Crop | 354.50 | 6026.50 | 312.00 | 5304.00 |
| Imports | 25.00 | 425.00 | 32.00 | 544.00 |
| Total Supply | 411.50 | 6995.50 | 377.00 | 6409.00 |
| Demand | ||||
| Mill Consumption | 288.00 | 4896.00 | 274.50 | 4666.50 |
| Consumption by SSI Units | 25.00 | 425.00 | 25.00 | 425.00 |
| Non- Mill Consumption | 18.00 | 306.00 | 12.00 | 204.00 |
| Total Domestic Demand | 331.00 | 5627.00 | 311.50 | 5295.50 |
| Available Surplus | 80.50 | 1368.50 | 65.50 | 1113.50 |
| Exports | 42.00 | 714.00 | 42.00 | 714.00 |
| Closing Stock | 38.50 | 654.50 | 23.50 | 399.50 |
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| COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA | ||
| Balance Sheet of 6 months i.e. from 1.10.2019 to 31.03.2020 | ||
| for the season 2019-20 | ||
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| STATE | GINNERS | MNC | CCI NEW | CCI OLD | MCX | MAH. FEDN. | TOTAL |
| PUNJAB | 0.25 | 0.05 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.05 |
| HARYANA | 0.30 | 0.00 | 3.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.55 |
| RAJASTHAN | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.95 |
| GUJARAT | 3.00 | 0.50 | 4.50 | 0.06 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 8.92 |
| MAHARASHTRA | 2.00 | 0.50 | 17.00 | 1.01 | 0.68 | 9.10 | 30.29 |
| ANDHRA PRADESH | 0.20 | 0.10 | 2.50 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.90 |
| TELANGANA | 0.20 | 0.10 | 39.50 | 5.60 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 45.42 |
| MADHYA PRADESH | 1.00 | 0.10 | 2.75 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.15 |
| ORISSA | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.18 |
| KARNATAKA | 0.90 | 0.12 | 2.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.12 |
| TOTAL | 10.35 | 1.67 | 78.50 | 7.35 | 1.56 | 9.10 | 108.53 |
| Note: | These are pressing bales figures stock available as on 30.03.2020 at 170 kg per bale (i.e. 115.56 lakh bales of 160 kgs.). The loose and raw cotton lying in ginning factories of ginners & CCI is not considered in this stock. | ||||||