Source: PRESS RELEASE
     

      CAI MAINTAINS ITS COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR 2019-20 SEASON AT

354.50 LAKH BALES

 

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its November estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2019-20 beginning from 1st October 2019.

CAI has retained its cotton crop estimate for 2019-20 at 354.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. at the same level as in the previous estimate. A statement containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the balance sheet as on 30th September 2020 drawn by the Crop Committee of the CAI with the corresponding data for 2018-19 crop year is enclosed.

The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone by 2.50 lakh bales from its previous month’s estimate i.e. 63.00 lakh bales as compared to 65.50 lakh bales estimated earlier. The cotton crop estimate for the Central Zone has been lowered by 1.00 lakh bales  i.e. at 195.00 lakh bales as against 196 lakh bales estimated during last month. There is a reduction of 4.00 lakh bales in the crop estimate of Gujarat state, the highest producer of cotton in India, on account of damage reported to the crop due to heavy rains and pink bollworm infestation. This has resulted in uprooting of cotton plants by about 10% farmers in Gujarat who wish to migrate to other competing crops. However, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the cotton crop estimate for Maharashtra as migration of cotton crop from Maharashtra to other neighbouring states is not likely to happen this year due to the participation of CCI in the market. Also, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the crop estimated for Telangana state and an increase of 50,000 bales in the crop estimated for Karnataka now compared to that estimated during last month.  

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 is 85.87 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which consists of the arrivals of 57.37 lakh bales upto 30th November 2019, imports of 5.00 lakh bales upto 30th November 2019 and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 at 50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI upto 30th November 2019 is 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each. Stock at the end of November 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 30.87 lakh bales including 15.87 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 15.00 lakh bales with CCI and others (MNCs, Traders, Ginners, etc.).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. upto 30th September 2020 at 403 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each consisting of the Opening Stock of 23.50 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 25.00 lakh bales, which are lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s estimate at 32.00 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. upto 30th September 2020 is 331 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at their meeting held on 28th November 2019. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 42 lakh bales, same as compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 30 lakh bales.

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HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD AT THE MEETING OF THE CROP COMMITTEE OF COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA ON 9TH DECEMBER 2019

Crop Committee of Cotton Association of India (CAI) met on 9th December 2019. 12 members were present. Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee has arrived at its November estimate of the cotton crop for the 2019-20 season beginning on 1st October 2019 and drew estimated cotton balance sheet.

The following are the highlights of deliberations at the said meeting: -

  1. The cotton crop estimate for the season 2019-20 is retained by the CAI at 354.50 lakh bales i.e. at the same level as estimated by it in the previous month although there are changes in the state-wise crop figures estimated now compared to the previous month.
  1. There is a reduction of 2.50 lakh bales in the cotton crop estimate of the Northern Zone from its previous month’s estimate i.e. 63.00 lakh bales as compared to 65.50 lakh bales estimated earlier. The cotton crop for Central Zone has been lowered by 1 lakh bales i.e. at 195.00 lakh bales as against 196 lakh bales estimated earlier.  There is a reduction of 4.00 lakh bales in the crop estimate of Gujarat state on account of damage reported to the crop due to heavy rains as well as pink bollworm infestation. This has resulted in uprooting of cotton plants by about 10% farmers in Gujarat, who wish to migrate to other competing crops. There is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the cotton crop estimate for Maharashtra as migration of cotton crop from Maharashtra to other neighbouring states is not likely to happen this year due to the participation of CCI in the market. Also, there is an increase of 3.00 lakh bales in the crop estimated for Telangana state and an increase of 50,000 bales in the crop estimated for Karnataka now as compared to that estimated during last month.  
  1. There is no change in the projection of cotton export for the season and the same is retained at 42 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously.
  2. There is no change in the projection of import of cotton and the same is retained at 25 lakh bales as estimated by the CAI previously. The import figure is lower by 7.00 lakh bales compared to that estimated for the last year.
  3. The yearly consumption is estimated by the CAI at 331 lakh bales i,e. same as estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at its meeting held on 28th November 2019.
  4. Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2019 and November 2019 are estimated at 57.37 lakh bales. 
  5. Shipment of imports from 1st October 2019 to 30th November 2019 which have reached Indian Ports are estimated at 5.00 lakh bales while balance 20.00 lakh bales are estimated to  arrive Indian Ports during the period from 1st December 2019 to 30th September 2020 (total imports estimated during the entire season are 25 lakh bales).
  6. Cotton export shipments from 1st October 2019 to 30th November 2019 which have already been shipped are estimated at 5 lakh bales while balance 37 lakh bales are expected to be shipped during the period from 1st December 2019 to 30th September 2020 (total exports estimated during the entire season are 42 lakh bales).
  7. Consumption by Indian spinning mills for 2 months i.e. from 1st October 2019 to 30th November 2019 is estimated at 50 lakh bales.
  8. Cotton stock held by mills in their godowns on 30th November 2019 is estimated at 15.87 lakh bales. 
  9. CCI, MNCs, Ginners and MCX are estimated to have stock of about 15.00 lakh bales as on 30th November 2019 which is equal to about 15.94 lakh running bales. 
  10. Thus, total stock held by spinning mills and stockists on 30th November 2019 is estimated at 30.87 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each which is equal to about 32.80 lakh bales.
  11. Closing stock as on 30th September 2020 is estimated by the Committee at 30 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.

 

      Mumbai  (Atul S. Ganatra)
11th December 2019 President    
   

 

 

COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA
INDIAN COTTON CROP ESTIMATE FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20       
Estimated as on 30th November 2019
State           Arrivals As on           30th November       2019
2019-20 2018-19 2019-20
    Total      Total  Total 
Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) Loose  (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) (in’000 Tons) Pressed (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) Loose  (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) (in’000 Tons)  (in lakh b/s of 170 kgs each) (in’000 Tons)
Punjab 7.50 2.50 10.00 170.00 6.00 2.50 8.50 144.50 2.55 43.35
Haryana 23.00 3.00 26.00 442.00 20.00 3.00 23.00 391.00 6.67 113.39
Upper Rajasthan 11.95 0.55 12.50 212.50 12.80 0.55 13.35 226.95 4.65 79.05
Lower Rajasthan 13.95 0.55 14.50 246.50 14.10 0.55 14.65 249.05 4.32 73.44
Total North Zone 56.40 6.60 63.00 1071.00 52.90 6.60 59.50 1011.50 18.19 309.23
                     
Gujarat 92.80 3.20 96.00 1632.00 84.80 3.20 88.00 1496.00 14.30 243.10
Maharashtra 77.25 5.75 83.00 1411.00 64.25 5.75 70.00 1190.00 7.60 129.20
Madhya Pradesh 15.30 0.70 16.00 272.00 21.93 0.70 22.63 384.71 3.13 53.21
Total Central Zone 185.35 9.65 195.00 3315.00 170.98 9.65 180.63 3070.71 25.03 425.51
                     
Telangana 50.40 0.60 51.00 867.00 34.60 0.60 35.20 598.40 7.10 120.70
Andhra Pradesh 9.10 5.90 15.00 255.00 5.95 5.90 11.85 201.45 3.10 52.70
Karnataka 19.40 1.10 20.50 348.50 14.40 1.10 15.50 263.50 3.75 63.75
Tamil Nadu 2.80 2.20 5.00 85.00 2.80 2.20 5.00 85.00 0.10 1.70
Total South Zone 81.70 9.80 91.50 1555.50 57.75 9.80 67.55 1148.35 14.05 238.85
                     
Orissa 3.95   0.05 4.00 68.00 3.27  0.05 3.32 56.44 0.10 1.70
Others 1.00               -   1.00 17.00 1.00                -   1.00 17.00 0.00 0.00
                     
Grand Total 328.40 26.10 354.50 6026.50 285.90 26.10 312.00 5304.00 57.37 975.29

 

COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA
INDIAN COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE SEASON 2018-19 AND 2019-20
Estimated as on 30th November 2019
 
Details 2019-20 2018-19
(in lakh b/s) (in’000 Tons) (in lakh b/s) (in’000 Tons)
Supply        
Opening Stock 23.50 399.50 33.00 561.00
Crop 354.50 6026.50 312.00 5304.00
Imports 25.00 425.00 32.00 544.00
Total Supply 403.00 6851.00 377.00 6409.00
Demand        
Mill Consumption 288.00 4896.00 274.50 4666.50
Consumption by SSI Units 25.00 425.00 25.00 425.00
Non- Mill Consumption 18.00 306.00 12.00 204.00
Total  Domestic Demand 331.00 5627.00 311.50 5295.50
   Available Surplus 72.00 1224.00 65.50 1113.50
   Exports 42.00 714.00 42.00 714.00
Closing Stock               30.00 510.00              23.50 399.50

 

COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA
Balance Sheet of 2 months i.e. from 1.10.2019 to 30.11.2019
for the season 2019-20
     
Details (in lakh b/s of 170 kg) (in '000 Tons)
     
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 23.50 399.50
Arrivals upto 30.11.2019 57.37 975.29
Imports upto 30.11.2019 5.00 85.00
Total Available 85.87 1459.79
     
Consumption  50.00 850.00
Export Shipment upto 30.11.2019 5.00 85.00
Stock with Mills 15.87 269.79
Stock with CCI, MNCs & Ginners 15.00 255.00
Total 85.87 1459.79

 



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